Day 2 — Sunday evening. The coalition is expanding and the missiles keep falling. Trump posted an evening video warning of "likely more" US casualties and calling on the IRGC to "lay down your arms and receive full immunity or face certain death." He told Fox News "48 leaders gone in one shot" and said the operation is "ahead of schedule." Then the biggest shift: UK PM Starmer granted the US use of British military bases to strike Iranian missile sites — the first new country actively joining the campaign. British jets are already shooting down Iranian drones over Iraq and Qatar. An Iranian missile hit Jerusalem Sunday evening — 3 wounded, shrapnel in 7 places across central Israel. Netanyahu vowed strikes would "increase even more in the coming days." Hezbollah's Naim Qassem vowed to "confront the aggression" — but the group still hasn't fired. In Pakistan, 22 are dead and all US facilities remain shut. Sen. Warner, the top Democrat on Intelligence, said he saw "no intelligence" that Iran planned a preemptive strike — "None." The state broadcaster IRIB's offices in Tehran were struck. A classified House briefing is set for Tuesday. Oil futures open tonight.
Israel and Iran exchanged direct strikes in April and October 2024. In mid-2025, they fought a 12-day war; the US also struck Iran's nuclear facilities. Iran said it stopped enriching but blocked inspectors — satellites showed rebuilding. US intelligence: Iran developed the capability to produce its own high-quality centrifuges. Iran also stockpiled more missiles than before the 2025 war.
Late December 2025: Iran's largest protests since 1979. Economic collapse, crashing rial. Government killed thousands (estimates: 3,117 to 32,000). Trump: US is "locked and loaded."
Weeks before Feb 28: US built biggest Middle East presence since Iraq 2003 while pursuing Oman-mediated nuclear talks. Iran agreed to never stockpile enriched uranium. "Significant progress." Geneva round scheduled. US and Israeli intelligence spent months tracking Khamenei — waited for the moment top officials gathered. 30 munitions dropped on his compound. Strikes launched on a Friday — the day before Purim.
Psychological warfare: Iran's state TV satellite feed hacked to broadcast Trump and Netanyahu speeches directly to Iranian citizens. Israel hacked a popular prayer app to urge IRGC members to surrender. The same tactic was used in Gaza. This plus celebrations in the streets = the information war is as important as the air war.
Neither Russia nor China can rescue Iran. Putin called the killing "cynical murder" but Russia is stretched by Ukraine; China buys 80% of Iran's oil but won't risk US relations. CFR's assessment is blunt: killing the supreme leader ≠ regime change. The IRGC is the regime. But Iran has already formed a three-member leadership council (Pezeshkian, Mohseni-Ejei, Arafi). Larijani warned secessionists. Ahmad Vahidi is likely the new IRGC chief. The regime is moving to reconstitute faster than many expected.
The war is spreading beyond the Middle East. In Pakistan, 22 people died when mobs stormed the US consulate in Karachi — Marine guards opened fire — and burned a UN office in Skardu. All US facilities in Pakistan are shut. Congress returns Monday for war powers votes (Kaine-Paul Senate, Khanna-Massie House). Symbolic — Trump would veto. Sen. Warner, the top Democrat on Intelligence, said he saw "no intelligence" Iran planned a preemptive strike. OPEC+ added 206K bpd, a drop in the ocean. Sunday evening: Trump warned of "likely more" casualties and called on the IRGC to surrender or "face certain death." UK PM Starmer granted the US use of British bases to strike Iranian missile sites — the first new country actively joining the campaign. An Iranian missile hit Jerusalem. Netanyahu vowed to escalate. Hezbollah vowed to "confront the aggression" but still hasn't fired. The coalition is growing. The question is no longer whether this war reshapes the region. It already has.